Taiwan’s Q4 GDP Growth Prediction; Exports and Trade Surplus Rise

Summary

  • It is predicted that the gross domestic product (GDP) of Taiwan would have grown by 4.35% in the last quarter of the previous year compared to the same period one year ago.
  • GDP estimates for the forthcoming Wednesday range between a mere 1.5% expansion up to a significant 6.5% growth.
  • The nation’s exports, after a year of reductions, began improving again last September.
  • In 2022, Taiwan’s domestic consumption showed strong resilience after confronting the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Experts predict strong recovery and substantial growth in the Taiwanese economy in the upcoming years, making Taiwan one of Asia’s standout performers.

Anticipated GDP Growth

The GDP of Taiwan is likely to have grown by 4.35% in October-December of last year compared to the preceding year, according to a sample of 22 economists. The GDP had expanded by 2.32% year-on-year in the third quarter of last year.

Forecast Variations

Estimates for Wednesday’s preliminary GDP data vary significantly, with the lowest prediction being a 1.5% growth and the highest reaching up to 6.5%.

Growth of Exports

Taiwan’s exports, which had been in a year-long decline, saw recovery commencing from September. There was a 3.4% increase in the fourth-quarter exports compared to the same period in 2022, whereas there had been a 5.1% annual contraction in the third quarter. The end of the year saw a trade surplus surge of 131% year-on-year.

Recovery of Domestic Consumption

Taiwan’s domestic consumption is also showing an impressive recovery following the COVID-19 pandemic. For instance, last week renowned restaurant chain Wowprime stated its plan to hire around 400 new employees in response to the booming demand.

Economists’ Observation

“The significant fourth-quarter growth is mainly attributable to the robust private consumption and a commendable trade surplus,” as stated by Kevin Wang, an analyst at the Taishin Securities Investment Advisory.

Official Statistics

According to economists of DBS, there is an expectation of substantial recovery this year with a 3.5% growth in the GDP, positioning Taiwan as one of Asia’s top performers. However, the government’s statistics bureau projected the total growth of 2023 to be 1.42%, marking the slowest progress in 14 years and lower than the 2.45% advancement in 2022.

Taiwan’s Role in Technology

Taiwan excels as a major participant in the global supply chain for technology companies like Apple (NASDAQ:) and Nvidia (NASDAQ:). Moreover, it is home to the world’s largest contract chip maker, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.

The GDP Report

The preliminary GDP data of Taiwan will be presented in a statement with minimal commentary. For more details, the revised numbers and future predictions will be available in a few weeks.

Taiwan’s sturdy economic performance and GDP growth might impact the forex market and could influence trading strategies related to Asian assets.

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