German PMI Index Reports 7-Month Contraction in Business Activity


  • The HCOB German Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), collated by S&P Global dropped for the seventh month running, registering 47.1 in January, down from December’s 47.4 and below economists’ predictions of 47.8.
  • Service industry activity slid to a five-month low in January, continuing its decline for the fourth month in succession and surpassing its rate of downturn.
  • The Manufacturing PMI showed an increment to 45.4 from 43.3 in December, surpassing predictions, but remained in a shrinking territory.

Persistent Downturn in the Economic Climate

German’s HCOB Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), as calculated by S&P Global, marked the seventh sequential decline, plunging to 47.1 in January, a fall from 47.4 in December and underneath the anticipated 47.8 by economists.

Such detracting figures under 50 signify diminishing business activity, delivering a signal of caution for economists and traders alike.

Impact on Key Economic Sectors

The services and manufacturing sectors, which contribute to more than two-thirds of the German economy are monitored by the composite PMI index. “A sluggish start” is how Cyrus de la Rubia, prominent economist at the Hamburg Commercial Bank, characterized Germany’s economic performance this year.

Negative Impact on the Services Sector

January witnessed the plunge of business activity in the services sector down to a 5-month low, sliding to 47.6 from a previous 49.3 in December, undercutting analysts’ forecast of 49.5. Not only has service activity decreased for the fourth month in a row, but the rate of contraction has also accelerated as interpreted by de la Rubia.

Signs of Hope for Manufacturing Sector

In contrast, the manufacturing PMI showed an upward climb to 45.4 from 43.3 in December, exceeding analysts’ expectations of 43.7, albeit still in contraction territory.

Despite the persistent general demand weakness, the impact on the labour market has been limited, stated the survey.

Effect of Red Sea Reroutings

The manufacturing sector’s supply chains have felt the impact of Red Sea reroutings, as hinted by the significant downturn in the delivery times sub-index, de la Rubia articulated.

This ongoing contraction could significantly affect the forex market, potentially influencing the value of the euro and other assets closely tied to the German economy. This financial news underscores the importance of closely monitoring PMI levels for trading strategies.

PIP Penguin